| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 08:50 - Apr 11 with 1775 views | Churchman |
Thank you for posting this. Interesting. The Baltic states are right to be very worried.
A million ethnic Russians live in them. Putin play book no 1 - ‘We are conducting a special operation to rescue our oppressed people who are daily victims of genocide’. You can see it coming.
Putins lost a tiny fraction of his military, but it will need time to re-equip and learn lessons. Timing is everything and a lot depends on how joined up the west remains on this. Is there the will to resist Putin or is the lure of oil, gas and roubles too great and Europe’s military too weak? Could the Baltic states be sacrificed as part of an enduring peace settlement?
We live in extraordinary times. |  | |  |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:05 - Apr 11 with 1746 views | blueasfook |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 08:50 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Thank you for posting this. Interesting. The Baltic states are right to be very worried.
A million ethnic Russians live in them. Putin play book no 1 - ‘We are conducting a special operation to rescue our oppressed people who are daily victims of genocide’. You can see it coming.
Putins lost a tiny fraction of his military, but it will need time to re-equip and learn lessons. Timing is everything and a lot depends on how joined up the west remains on this. Is there the will to resist Putin or is the lure of oil, gas and roubles too great and Europe’s military too weak? Could the Baltic states be sacrificed as part of an enduring peace settlement?
We live in extraordinary times. |
That's the worrying scenario isnt it. Will Putin stop at Ukraine? I think it depends on how the war in Ukraine ultimately turns out. If he gets his nose bloodied there and has to pull out, that should hopefully be the end of his expansion ambitions. But if he does manage a land grab, he may well turn his attention to other former Soviet states. Agree with the article and that NATO has to adopt a more aggressive stance on its eastern front. |  |
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| [Redacted] on 09:06 - Apr 11 with 1738 views | victorywilhappen |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 08:50 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Thank you for posting this. Interesting. The Baltic states are right to be very worried.
A million ethnic Russians live in them. Putin play book no 1 - ‘We are conducting a special operation to rescue our oppressed people who are daily victims of genocide’. You can see it coming.
Putins lost a tiny fraction of his military, but it will need time to re-equip and learn lessons. Timing is everything and a lot depends on how joined up the west remains on this. Is there the will to resist Putin or is the lure of oil, gas and roubles too great and Europe’s military too weak? Could the Baltic states be sacrificed as part of an enduring peace settlement?
We live in extraordinary times. |
[Redacted] |  | | |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:13 - Apr 11 with 1693 views | Keno |
I thought that read Danzig Corridor for a minute |  |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:15 - Apr 11 with 1687 views | blueasfook |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:13 - Apr 11 by Keno |
I thought that read Danzig Corridor for a minute |
Could be similar in that it triggers a new world war.
I think it's time to build a nuclear bunker in the garden. | |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:26 - Apr 11 with 1667 views | Keno |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:15 - Apr 11 by blueasfook |
Could be similar in that it triggers a new world war.
I think it's time to build a nuclear bunker in the garden. |
I found some funny weeds growing in mine, smells nice tho
/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/gray/SZQMJTQYMRH6NGEHNJQIPXHCTU.jpg) | |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:59 - Apr 11 with 1618 views | blueasfook |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:26 - Apr 11 by Keno |
I found some funny weeds growing in mine, smells nice tho
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What a way to spend a few years waiting for the nuclear winter to pass. You'll be fine Keno | |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:02 - Apr 11 with 1611 views | Ftnfwest |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:13 - Apr 11 by Keno |
I thought that read Danzig Corridor for a minute |
well i for one have no interest in your suwalki gap! (or your danzig corridor) |  | | |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:12 - Apr 11 with 1596 views | Churchman |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:15 - Apr 11 by blueasfook |
Could be similar in that it triggers a new world war.
I think it's time to build a nuclear bunker in the garden. |
Highly unlikely there will be a nuclear exchange. I know others don’t agree, but I believe the west has showed it’s hand on nuclear which ironically provides every incentive for Putin to crack on.
Anyone who believes Putin will stop with Ukraine needs to look at his track record and the history of people like him. Ukraine is a stepping stone in his journey. He won’t stop unless he is forced to.
When you look at the leadership of all the western countries, bar Zelenski who’s been amazing, I can’t see it happening. If you were Putin, would you respect key players Biden, Macron, Scholtz and Johnson? That’s up there with putting your faith in a midfield of Douglas, Skuse, Hyam and Dinning (chucked him in for a laugh).
A lot depends on Putin’s eastern offensive. If he roles the Ukrainians over (they must be very worn down by now) he will have more options than if his army gets bogged down. Crucial period coming up methinks. | | | |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:26 - Apr 11 with 1575 views | Guthrum |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 08:50 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Thank you for posting this. Interesting. The Baltic states are right to be very worried.
A million ethnic Russians live in them. Putin play book no 1 - ‘We are conducting a special operation to rescue our oppressed people who are daily victims of genocide’. You can see it coming.
Putins lost a tiny fraction of his military, but it will need time to re-equip and learn lessons. Timing is everything and a lot depends on how joined up the west remains on this. Is there the will to resist Putin or is the lure of oil, gas and roubles too great and Europe’s military too weak? Could the Baltic states be sacrificed as part of an enduring peace settlement?
We live in extraordinary times. |
He's lost an (actuually not so tiny) proportion of his military, but a key element is where the losses have fallen.
Like most militaries, the Russian army consists of an elite fighting spearhead, backed by support and logistics units, with a bunch of other less well trained and equipped (including conscript) troops to do the more mundane jobs, down to those guarding long, empty borders in Central Asia.
That spearhead - Spetznaz, paratroopers, the best armoured units, marine infantry - bear the brunt of combat and take the highest losses (particularly when things go wrong). Those units are then damaged and unavailable for later operations without being substantially rebuilt and refitted. Experienced personnel are gone - including a lot of commanders, in this war - expensive equipment is lost. They can't be replaced in five minutes. Morale and self-confidence will also have taken a knock.
The fact that Russia is recruiting Chechens and Syrians, plus calling mercenaries back from overseas likely tells us a lot about the level of effective fighting troops they still have available. Not sure they have the forces to conduct a ground war on more than one front.
This phase of Putin's scheme is not yet complete and it's going to be a while before he can rebuild, reorganise and redeploy his army to go anywhere else and hope to succeed.
For as long as Putin survives in power, I think the "enduring peace" is going to be more like the armed standoff along the Iron Curtain than any genuine settlement. He has burnt too many bridges (and the West responded so strongly) there is minimal room for a climbdown and reconciliation. Especially as Europe will be working hard to prevent him using oil and gas to hold them hostage in the future. |  |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:27 - Apr 11 with 1569 views | blueasfook |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:12 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Highly unlikely there will be a nuclear exchange. I know others don’t agree, but I believe the west has showed it’s hand on nuclear which ironically provides every incentive for Putin to crack on.
Anyone who believes Putin will stop with Ukraine needs to look at his track record and the history of people like him. Ukraine is a stepping stone in his journey. He won’t stop unless he is forced to.
When you look at the leadership of all the western countries, bar Zelenski who’s been amazing, I can’t see it happening. If you were Putin, would you respect key players Biden, Macron, Scholtz and Johnson? That’s up there with putting your faith in a midfield of Douglas, Skuse, Hyam and Dinning (chucked him in for a laugh).
A lot depends on Putin’s eastern offensive. If he roles the Ukrainians over (they must be very worn down by now) he will have more options than if his army gets bogged down. Crucial period coming up methinks. |
Battle for the east of Ukraine is key yes. But evidence so far is Ukraine are proving tougher opponents than he bargained for, and I am sure he didnt factor on NATO piling weapons and money in to support them.
The bar for NATO is clear. Invade a NATO ally and it's on. [Post edited 11 Apr 2022 10:30]
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:29 - Apr 11 with 1556 views | Mookamoo |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:12 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Highly unlikely there will be a nuclear exchange. I know others don’t agree, but I believe the west has showed it’s hand on nuclear which ironically provides every incentive for Putin to crack on.
Anyone who believes Putin will stop with Ukraine needs to look at his track record and the history of people like him. Ukraine is a stepping stone in his journey. He won’t stop unless he is forced to.
When you look at the leadership of all the western countries, bar Zelenski who’s been amazing, I can’t see it happening. If you were Putin, would you respect key players Biden, Macron, Scholtz and Johnson? That’s up there with putting your faith in a midfield of Douglas, Skuse, Hyam and Dinning (chucked him in for a laugh).
A lot depends on Putin’s eastern offensive. If he roles the Ukrainians over (they must be very worn down by now) he will have more options than if his army gets bogged down. Crucial period coming up methinks. |
They want Kyiv, but it looks more likely they'll settle for annexing the Donbas region, maybe trying to extend down to Crimea.
Putin is going to wake up to find Sweden and Finland in NATO and not have the money to effectively manage his borders let alone start another offensive. |  | | |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:33 - Apr 11 with 1547 views | Guthrum |
The problem from a Russian strategic perspective with simply driving a corridor along the Polish-Lithuanian border is it has open flanks on both sides, would be hard to keep open and free from interdiction. So they'd need to take and hold the whole of the Baltic States, while fighting off Poland from the other direction. Plus, of course, all those are NATO countries who would be heavily reinforced, with perhaps other fronts opened to distract the attacker and dilute his forces.
I don't see it as viable. Which, given Putin's mad decision to attack Ukraine, isn't the same as saying he won't try it. | |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 13:49 - Apr 11 with 1370 views | Keno |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 10:12 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Highly unlikely there will be a nuclear exchange. I know others don’t agree, but I believe the west has showed it’s hand on nuclear which ironically provides every incentive for Putin to crack on.
Anyone who believes Putin will stop with Ukraine needs to look at his track record and the history of people like him. Ukraine is a stepping stone in his journey. He won’t stop unless he is forced to.
When you look at the leadership of all the western countries, bar Zelenski who’s been amazing, I can’t see it happening. If you were Putin, would you respect key players Biden, Macron, Scholtz and Johnson? That’s up there with putting your faith in a midfield of Douglas, Skuse, Hyam and Dinning (chucked him in for a laugh).
A lot depends on Putin’s eastern offensive. If he roles the Ukrainians over (they must be very worn down by now) he will have more options than if his army gets bogged down. Crucial period coming up methinks. |
Who would have though the shooting of an Austrian Prince in a Serbia city in 1914 would lead to a full scale world war 6 weeks later | |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 22:23 - Apr 11 with 1160 views | factual_blue |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 09:15 - Apr 11 by blueasfook |
Could be similar in that it triggers a new world war.
I think it's time to build a nuclear bunker in the garden. |
The sort of people who have already built nuclear bunkers are a powerful argument for not wanting to survive a near-armageddon event. |  |
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 23:00 - Apr 11 with 1121 views | Churchman |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 13:49 - Apr 11 by Keno |
Who would have though the shooting of an Austrian Prince in a Serbia city in 1914 would lead to a full scale world war 6 weeks later |
Indeed, but I think WW2 is a better parallel. Western Europe slept after WW1. All bar Germany. They made demand after demand and the policy of appeasement resulted ultimately in millions of deaths.
The west has been asleep again. Hopefully there’s enough to contain and hold Putin this time around. Putin might be regarded and admired by many as the worlds strongman, but to date, his military has come up short on what was expected of it so there’s a glimmer of hope there. But not for the poor Ukrainians.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61071243
[Post edited 12 Apr 2022 6:56]
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| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 01:01 - Apr 12 with 1047 views | jeera |
| The Suwalki gap in focus. Calls for invasion . on 23:00 - Apr 11 by Churchman |
Indeed, but I think WW2 is a better parallel. Western Europe slept after WW1. All bar Germany. They made demand after demand and the policy of appeasement resulted ultimately in millions of deaths.
The west has been asleep again. Hopefully there’s enough to contain and hold Putin this time around. Putin might be regarded and admired by many as the worlds strongman, but to date, his military has come up short on what was expected of it so there’s a glimmer of hope there. But not for the poor Ukrainians.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61071243
[Post edited 12 Apr 2022 6:56]
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Normal innocent people living normal innocent lives violated in every damn way possible.
Sickening. |  |
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